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全球化(globalization)一詞,是一種概念,也是一種人類社會(huì)發(fā)展的現(xiàn)象過程。全球化目前有諸多定義,通常意義上的全球化是指全球聯(lián)系不斷增強(qiáng),人類生活在全球規(guī)模的基礎(chǔ)上發(fā)展及全球意識(shí)的崛起。國(guó)與國(guó)之間在政治、經(jīng)濟(jì)貿(mào)易上互相依存。全球化亦可以解釋為世界的壓縮和視全球?yàn)橐粋€(gè)整體。二十世紀(jì)九十年代后,隨著全球化勢(shì)力對(duì)人類社會(huì)影響層面的擴(kuò)張,已逐漸引起各國(guó)政治、教育、社會(huì)及文化等學(xué)科領(lǐng)域的重視,引發(fā)大規(guī)模的研究熱潮。對(duì)于“全球化”的觀感是好是壞,目前仍是見仁見智,例如全球化對(duì)于本土文化來(lái)說就是一把雙刃劍,它也會(huì)使得本土文化的內(nèi)涵與自我更新能力逐漸模糊與喪失。
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徐立凡:GDP總量超澳大利亞,粵港澳大灣區(qū)還有哪些底氣?
文章選自新京報(bào)網(wǎng),2019年2月21日
2019年2月25日 -
Xu Hongcai: Challenges and Changes to the Chinese Economy
By Xu Hongcai, a Non-Resident senior research fellow at the Center for China and Globalization(CCG).? In the past year, a drastic change has occurred. The growth momentum of the global economy was strong in the first half of 2018, but it slowed down in the second half of the year, and the slowdown will continue over the next two years. The IMF cut its forecast for world economic growth in 2019 to 3.5%, compared with 3.7% last year. The USA’s economy is expected to grow 2.5% this year, compared with 2.9% last year. At the same time, the IMF also lowered the expected growth in Europe, Japan, and developing countries. Looking back to 2018, “black swan” events took place frequently worldwide. The economic policies of the major economies changed a lot. The international oil price, the stock market, and foreign exchange market quaked dramatically. Global foreign direct investment was shrinking. Global trade growth is slowing down. China’s economy as a whole has remained stable. There are several economic indicators: first, the GDP exceeded ¥90 trillion for the first time; second, the per capita income reached $10,000 for the first time; third, the volume of foreign trade exceeded ¥30 trillion yuan for the first time; fourth, the foreign exchange reserves remained above $3 trillion. These achievements are indeed hard-won. Last year, China’s GDP grew by 6.6%, but it also showed a declining trend quarter by quarter. Even so, China has still contributed about 30% of the world’s new GDP growth and remained a veritable engine of world economic growth. China’s economy has made steady progress and shown signs of improvement in five aspects. First, the economic growth rate was within a reasonable range. It is expected that China’s GDP will grow by 6.3% this year and by more than 6.0% in 2020. China is likely to complete the building of a well-off society in all respects by 2020. Second, inflation was stable. The consumer price index (CPI) grew by an average of 2.1% in 2018, and urban and rural residents’ income growth was roughly in line with economic growth. Third, the employment situation was good, with 13 million urban jobs created for six consecutive years. Fourth, the international balance of payments has reached basic equilibrium. The trade surplus has narrowed, and there has been no large-scale capital outflow. Both FDI and outward direct investment have maintained steady growth, and the RMB exchange rate has remained relatively stable at a reasonable and balanced level. Fifth, we made positive progress in supply-side structural reform, improved the economic structure and raised the quality and efficiency of development. The investment structure was optimized, with investment in environmental protection and agriculture increasing by 43.0% and 15.4% respectively in 2018. The added value of the tertiary industry accounted for 52.2% of GDP and contributed 59.7% to GDP growth. Consumption as the main driving force of economic growth was consolidated, and the final consumption expenditure contributed 76.2% to GDP, 18.6 percentage points higher than that in the previous year. China made solid progress in pursuing green development, and energy consumption per ¥10,000 of GDP decreased by 3.1% over the previous year. However, China’s economy also faces new challenges. World economic growth will slow down in the coming years, and the economic policies of the United States, Europe, and other major economies are full of uncertainties. With the prevalence of protectionism, populism, and unilateralism, the multilateral trading system with the WTO as the core and the global governance are facing unprecedented challenges. In recent years, China’s foreign trade surplus has narrowed year by year. In 2018, China’s foreign trade surplus hit a record low with only $350 billion and will keep declining in the future. Meanwhile, the principal contradiction in Chinese society has been transformed into one between the people’s ever-growing need for a better life and unbalanced and inadequate development. In recent years, with the increase in labor costs and the improvement of environmental protection standards, some low-end manufacturing industries have begun to migrate to neighboring countries. Investment growth is also weak, and it is difficult to keep relying on expanding investment to drive economic growth. At the same time, the growth of household consumption is not strong. High housing prices in first-tier cities have squeezed consumer spending. The growth of traditional consumption, such as in housing and automobiles, was weak, while the growth of emerging consumption, such as tourism, culture, information, pensions, health, and sports consumption, accelerated, but their share on the whole was low. In recent years, enterprises have significantly increased their investment in research and development. However, it still takes time to cultivate new drivers of economic development. The manufacturing industry is large but not strong, and the overall level of science and technology is still low. In the past few years, although we have kept the bottom line of no systemic financial risks and generally maintained financial stability, some local financial risks have inevitably emerged, such as the collapse of P2P platforms, default of corporate bonds, and volatility of the stock market, which have had a negative impact on the development of the real economy. At the beginning of the new year, we feel the uncertainty from the outside world while starting a new round of reform and innovation. There are favorable conditions: first, China has maintained political stability, and policy continuity and flexibility. Second, domestic demand is relatively stable and the market is huge. With the growth of per capita income, people’s demand for diversified consumption increases. Third, the role of innovation in driving economic growth is rising, and technological progress and industrial restructuring are gaining momentum. Fourth, consumption has become the main driving force for economic growth. Fifth, the dividends of a new round of deepening reform and opening up will be seen. China’s policymakers are making new adjustments. The first is a proactive fiscal policy. China will cut taxes and fees, including corporate income tax and value-added tax, especially reducing the operating costs of small businesses so that they can carry out their business more easily. At the same time, China will create a sound business environment and reduce institutional costs. By the end of 2018, China’s import tariffs had been cut from 9.8% to 7.5% and will be lowered in the future. China will increase investment in infrastructure to promote connectivity and the free flow of production factors. So, there is a need to expand the issuance of special local government bonds from ¥1.6 trillion to ¥2 trillion. The fiscal deficit is likely to rise to 3% from 2.6% last year. Second, China will adopt a prudent monetary policy with an appropriate level of money supply, preventing violent fluctuations in the financial market, maintaining reasonable and sufficient liquidity, dredging channels for conducting monetary policy, developing multi-tiered capital markets, and preventing and defusing major financial risks. Third, structural reform policies will focus on building and nurturing new system mechanisms. In June 2018, China revised the negative list of market access for foreign-invested enterprises. In December, it released the negative list of market access for domestic enterprises (2018 version). It plans to implement the “one list nationwide” management model in March 2019 and fully implement the management model of?pre-establishment?national?treatment?and negative list. Everything that the market can do should be left to the market, and the decisive role of the market in resource allocation should be brought into full play. Meanwhile, the role of the government should be managed well to make up for market failure. In 2019, China will accelerate reform in key areas, especially in the reform of state-owned assets management and state-owned enterprises. China will focus on maintaining and increasing the value of state-owned assets. It will expand the scope for mixed-ownership reform, break the monopoly and encourage competition. Private capital will gradually play a leading role. Meanwhile, China will establish a modern fiscal and tax system, straighten out the relationship between the government and the market, and reduce the cost of government operations. In financial reform, China will improve the efficiency of financial services for the real economy. Large financial institutions should realize strategic transformation, strengthen internal risk control and improve risk pricing ability, so as to adapt to the trend of comprehensive operation of financial institutions and expand financial openness. China will encourage the development of private banks and other small- and medium-sized financial institutions. In my opinion, the most promising place for China’s economic development in the next decade is the rural-urban area. China is gradually establishing a mechanism for the two-way and orderly flow of production factors between urban and rural areas, promoting integrated development between urban and rural areas, rural revitalization, and the construction of urban infrastructure. In particular, China should deepen the reform of the land system, increase the application of new technology and improve the rural market system, promote the transformation of agricultural development from a small-scale peasant economy based on families to a modernized agriculture, and promote the development of urbanization by fostering new industries and creating new employment opportunities. With a large number of farmers turned into citizens, the consumption growth of Chinese residents has great potential. Looking into 2019, the difficulties in the first quarter may be large, but China’s economy is projected to stabilize in the second half of the year. It is expected that the annual economic growth rate will remain between 6.0% and 6.5%, and the CPI rise will be around 2.2%. 13 million new urban jobs will be created. Investment in fixed assets is expected to grow by about 6.5%. The growth of imports and exports will slow down, and the trade surplus will narrow to about $300 billion. However, the trade structure tends to be optimized, and the competitiveness of foreign trade enterprises will be enhanced. China will adopt a more proactive fiscal policy, cutting taxes and fees by about ¥2 trillion and expanding infrastructure investment by the same amount. Monetary policy will be slightly loose at the margin. M2, the broad money, will grow by about 9.0%. RMB loans will grow by about 10%, and the nominal interest rate will remain unchanged. By the end of 2019, the dollar-RMB exchange rate will remain within 7.0. In general, China’s economy will continue to grow steadily in the future. From chinausfocus,2019-1-31
2019年2月25日 -
Zamir Ahmed Awan: Beijing, Islamabad committed to making flagship CPEC project
The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is an example for the rest of the world. CPEC is one out of six planned corridors under?the?Belt and Road?Initiative (BRI) launched by China in 2013. These corridors include the China-Mongolia-Russia Economic Corridor (CMREC), New Eurasian Land Bridge (NELB), China-Central Asia-West Asia Economic Corridor (CCWAEC), China-Indochina Peninsula Economic Corridor (CICPEC), China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), and Bangladesh-China-India-Myanmar Economic Corridor (BCIMEC).?All of these economic corridors are very well conceived and planned. The importance of each corridor is undeniable. Upon completion of all these corridors, the world will be transformed and enter into a new era. Global economic patterns will change and trade will take on a new shape.?However, five of these corridors pass through more than two countries, and it is understood that the more countries involved, the more difficult it becomes due to cultural barriers and variations in political and economic conditions in each country. Similarly, distance also matters; the longer the corridor, the more time and money it may take to complete.Fortunately, CPEC is the simplest and the most feasible. It is a project jointly built by China and Pakistan, so it has fewer countries involved compared to the other five corridors. The 3,000-km-long corridor starts from China’s Kashgar and ends at Pakistan’s Gwadar, the shortest distance among all the corridors. Above all, the relationship between China and Pakistan is ideal, and there is little disagreement between these two countries. In fact, China and Pakistan support each other on all issues at the domestic, regional and global level. There exists a complete harmony.?Due to all of these reasons, CPEC has been declared a flagship project, and the governments of both countries are giving it highest priority. Both nations are committed to making it a success. Whatever the difficulties or hurdles, both sides are committed to overcoming them and creating an example for the rest of world.To date, the people of Pakistan are enjoying the fruits of early harvest projects under CPEC. With the launch of CPEC, Pakistan’s GDP improved from 4.7 to 5.5. It was a big jump as the nation has faced many complex issues over the last 4 decades. The country was an energy deficient nation and faced a shortage of electricity. There was load-shedding for several hours on a daily basis. But under CPEC’s early harvest projects, around 10,000 megawatts of electricity were added to the national grid. Load-shedding minimized and almost vanished from the big cities of Pakistan. There are a few other power generation projects at an advanced stage of completion and expected to be completed by 2020. It is expected that Pakistan will face a smaller gap between supply and demand of electricity once all projects are completed in the next few years. The laying of optical fiber lines between China and Pakistan is another advanced stage project, and internet speeds will be improved greatly upon its completion. This will revolutionize the IT industry in Pakistan. It will also reduce dependence on sea-bed cables connecting Pakistan with the rest of the world. Due to damage to undersea cables, which are difficult to repair quickly, Pakistan has been sporadically cut off from the rest of world.?A network of roads has been completed across Pakistan, and many more are under construction or in the pipeline. A strong network of roads has made Pakistan very well connected internally. It also has helped to improve connectivity and ultimately enhance business activities. Road networks have contributed to the nation’s socioeconomic development.The country’s railway system is also slated for a complete revamp. The Karachi-Peshawar Railway Line project, also referred to as ML-1, is in the advanced stage of finalization and may be initiated soon. Rail will become the cheapest and quickest mode of transportation for passengers and cargo in Pakistan in the near future.?Fast-track industrialization is also expected, as special economic zones (SEZs) are being launched soon. There are nine SEZs in total, three of which are almost ready to be launched: Rashakai SEZ, M-3 Industrial Zone in Faisalabad and Dhabijee Industrial state in Sindh. The SEZs will rapidly change Pakistan’s fate.
2019年2月25日 -
CCG研究 | 澳大利亞:青睞職業(yè)人才
《人才戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng) 2.0》 | ?王輝耀、苗綠 著 跟礦業(yè)的繁榮不同,創(chuàng)新思維的繁榮(ideaboom)是可永續(xù)發(fā)展的,唯一的束縛就是我們的想象力。? ——澳大利亞現(xiàn)任總理馬爾科姆?特恩布爾(Malcolm Turnbull) 2016年4月,逯高清出任英國(guó)薩里大學(xué)第五任校長(zhǎng),成為改革開放后中國(guó)留學(xué)生中首位出任英國(guó)排名前十大學(xué)校長(zhǎng)的人。此前,他在澳大利亞求學(xué)、工作了28年,從在澳大利亞昆士蘭大學(xué)攻讀化學(xué)工程博士學(xué)位到成為全球備受尊重的學(xué)術(shù)帶頭人,從39歲成為澳大利亞工程院史上最年輕的院士到2014年升任澳大利亞昆士蘭大學(xué)史上第一位華人副校長(zhǎng),他為澳大利亞的納米科技發(fā)展做出了杰出貢獻(xiàn)。 其他被澳大利亞吸引的華人精英有:楊小凱,澳籍杰出華人經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家,被譽(yù)為“離諾貝爾獎(jiǎng)最近的華人”;黃英賢,現(xiàn)任澳大利亞吉拉德政府金融部長(zhǎng),也是首位亞裔部長(zhǎng)和華裔部長(zhǎng);蘇震西,祖籍中國(guó)廣東順德,17歲和家人從香港移民至澳大利亞,后來(lái)成為墨爾本第一位直選市長(zhǎng),也是該市首位華裔市長(zhǎng),并榮獲“世界最佳市長(zhǎng)”榮譽(yù)……他們有的從事學(xué)術(shù)研究,有的從政,均為澳大利亞的發(fā)展做出杰出貢獻(xiàn)。 一直以來(lái),澳大利亞是人才戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)的大贏家。在這個(gè)奉行多元文化的移民國(guó)度里,2015年接受的移民存量為676.4萬(wàn),占本國(guó)人口的28.2%,比加拿大高出6個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。其中英國(guó)人最多,約129萬(wàn)人;新西蘭人居次,約64萬(wàn)人;中國(guó)人居第三,約45萬(wàn)人,相當(dāng)于每吸收15個(gè)移民中就有1個(gè)是中國(guó)人。 2015年9月走馬上任的總理馬爾科姆?特恩布爾(Malcolm Turnbull)的兒媳婦也是華人,他還曾到中國(guó)開設(shè)了第一家中西合作的礦山企業(yè)河北華澳礦業(yè)開發(fā)有限公司。 從5萬(wàn)多年前第一批移民通過馬來(lái)群島和新幾內(nèi)亞抵達(dá)澳大利亞,到成為英國(guó)流放犯人的落腳地,到1788年對(duì)外開放移民,直到1901年澳大利亞聯(lián)邦成立,這塊廣袤的土地上始終有著“人口少得可憐”的煩惱。從1907年起,澳大利亞開始大規(guī)模接受移民,但限制有色人種,奉行“白澳政策” ;二戰(zhàn)后,大力吸引歐洲人移民——“只要你是歐洲人血統(tǒng),身體健康,沒有犯罪記錄,就能夠成為澳大利亞的移民”;1950年,允許亞洲學(xué)生赴澳留學(xué);1957年,非白人移民在澳洲居住15年后可以成為公民;1965年,“非歧視性”技術(shù)移民計(jì)劃開始實(shí)行,任何種族的人只有達(dá)到職業(yè)技術(shù)要求,都可以申請(qǐng)移民;1966年,部分非歐洲移民在居留5年后可獲得永久居留權(quán)和成為公民。 1973年是澳大利亞從“人口爭(zhēng)奪”過渡到“人才爭(zhēng)奪”的轉(zhuǎn)折點(diǎn)。得益于工黨政府的努力,“白澳政策”被正式取消,自愿移民數(shù)量超出國(guó)家所需數(shù)量,澳大利亞再也不需要發(fā)放津貼來(lái)吸引外來(lái)移民了!到了80年代,鼓勵(lì)“多元文化”和“多種族和諧”被正式確立為國(guó)策。 澳大利亞的兩個(gè)主要政黨,工黨和自由黨,競(jìng)選時(shí)勢(shì)均力敵,各不相讓,但在移民政策上驚人得一致:均支持高數(shù)量!2015~2016年度,澳大利亞吸引了近19萬(wàn)名移民,其中近13萬(wàn)名通過“技術(shù)渠道” ,近6萬(wàn)名是家庭團(tuán)聚類,308人獲得特別資格類別永居簽證。 其中技術(shù)類、投資類、雇主擔(dān)保類人才占獲永久拘留資格總?cè)藬?shù)的68%,這一比例多年來(lái)保持穩(wěn)定,相當(dāng)于10個(gè)人中有7個(gè)是職業(yè)型人才。 怎么爭(zhēng)奪海外的職業(yè)型人才?澳大利亞采取的辦法如下。 20世紀(jì)90年代開始施行以需求為導(dǎo)向的移民政策,確立職業(yè)型移民制度,采用職業(yè)移民清單方式,并借鑒加拿大的積分評(píng)估制度,結(jié)合起來(lái)瞄準(zhǔn)海外的技術(shù)人才和商業(yè)人才。1999年澳大利亞政府開始使用“緊缺職業(yè)列表”(Migration Occupations in Demand List),符合表單上的職業(yè)才能申請(qǐng)移民。2011年,又引入“技術(shù)選擇”(Select Skill)移民模式,海外申請(qǐng)人需向移民部遞交申請(qǐng)書,政府選擇匹配合格后向人才發(fā)出邀請(qǐng),這就相當(dāng)于建立起一個(gè)龐大的“全球人才儲(chǔ)備庫(kù)”,可以根據(jù)需要隨時(shí)地調(diào)取人才。 為了吸引投資者,2012年澳大利亞政府在商業(yè)創(chuàng)新與投資項(xiàng)目中新增“重要投資者簽證”,2015年7月1日又實(shí)施“高端投資者簽證”,要求申請(qǐng)者投資超過1500萬(wàn)澳元,投資滿一年即可申請(qǐng)永居權(quán)。 為了吸引留學(xué)生,澳大利亞自2007年9月1日起給予18個(gè)月畢業(yè)后的臨時(shí)簽證,還對(duì)境外著名大學(xué)(亞洲18所,中國(guó)占12所 )畢業(yè)、符合澳大利亞緊缺技術(shù)需求的學(xué)生給予18個(gè)月的臨時(shí)簽證,不受限制在澳境內(nèi)工作、學(xué)習(xí)或者旅游。雙管齊下,既使澳大利亞的國(guó)際留學(xué)生比例遠(yuǎn)超經(jīng)合組織(OECD)國(guó)家的平均值,還從中國(guó)等國(guó)家“掐尖”,把國(guó)外頂級(jí)大學(xué)培養(yǎng)出的人才招攬走。 為了吸引優(yōu)秀的科技人才,2009年澳大利亞發(fā)布了《驅(qū)動(dòng)創(chuàng)意:21世紀(jì)的創(chuàng)新議程》,締造科研環(huán)境基礎(chǔ);2010年降低了赴澳讀研究類碩士、博士的門檻; 2016年11月生效“創(chuàng)業(yè)者簽證(Entrepreneur Visa)”,吸引有創(chuàng)新及高增長(zhǎng)潛力想法的創(chuàng)業(yè)者留澳,并協(xié)助在澳接受高等教育的高級(jí)人才、博士或研究類碩士留學(xué)生,尤其是STEM 和IT領(lǐng)域畢業(yè)生留下促進(jìn)國(guó)家改革創(chuàng)新。 為了促進(jìn)偏遠(yuǎn)地區(qū)的發(fā)展,澳大利亞設(shè)立了偏遠(yuǎn)地區(qū)雇主提名計(jì)劃(RSM),雇主可以提名來(lái)自海外的員工或者境內(nèi)臨時(shí)居住者來(lái)填補(bǔ)全職的、永久的空缺職位。 澳大利亞瞄準(zhǔn)的是全球的職業(yè)人才,2009年移民局在曼谷、北京、洛杉磯和馬尼拉4個(gè)城市舉辦技術(shù)移民招募會(huì)。 盡管使勁渾身解數(shù),澳大利亞研究部門還是認(rèn)為政府引進(jìn)人才的力度還不夠,要更加重視人才戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng),要從全球人才市場(chǎng)吸收到足夠的稀缺資源——世界頂尖人才。早在10年前,澳大利亞便認(rèn)識(shí)到“即使在過去10年內(nèi)澳大利亞的技術(shù)和工程人才隊(duì)伍有所增長(zhǎng),但世界級(jí)人才仍短缺”。因此,澳大利亞善用中介機(jī)構(gòu)與獵頭,把政府公務(wù)員、大學(xué)校長(zhǎng)、高級(jí)精英人才等的聘請(qǐng)委托給專業(yè)獵頭,在全球范圍內(nèi)進(jìn)行公開競(jìng)聘。 事實(shí)上,國(guó)際移民組織的數(shù)據(jù)顯示,澳大利亞吸引到的移民質(zhì)量還是很高的,移民中接受高等教育的比例更高達(dá)46.4%,遠(yuǎn)高于美國(guó)的27.3%和加拿大的33.2%,有效補(bǔ)充了本國(guó)所需的稀缺人才。 2015年澳大利亞人口增速為1.4%,為10年來(lái)的最低值,工作年齡人口近年增長(zhǎng)也很緩慢,老齡化問題嚴(yán)重。特恩布爾曾表示將擴(kuò)大政府的技術(shù)移民計(jì)劃,以吸引并接納海外優(yōu)秀人才。還有研究認(rèn)為,澳政府可能會(huì)大力推進(jìn)商業(yè)類移民政策,以吸引更多海外投資。2016年初,澳大利亞產(chǎn)業(yè)組織(Australian Industry Group)向澳政府提議將每年引進(jìn)的海外移民數(shù)提高15%,從19萬(wàn)人增加到22萬(wàn)人,以助推本國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展。 正如前移民部長(zhǎng)克里?伊文斯(Chris Evans)所說,澳大利亞被認(rèn)為是全世界通過移民政策吸引人才最成功的國(guó)家之一,沒有任何理由不繼續(xù)堅(jiān)持。 引用相關(guān)內(nèi)容請(qǐng)注明出處:《人才戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng) 2.0》, 王輝耀、苗綠著,東方出版社。
2019年2月22日 -
Turning grey before getting rich: China’s ageing population
At the age of 57, Mu Zhiming is coming to terms with the inevitable truth that he will take up residence at a nursing home in a few years’ time. With his son in the U.S. and a stroke paralyzing his wife, he has no one to turn to when in need of care. Though his monthly pension of 9,000 yuan (1,300 U.S. dollars) is already in the highest income bracket, he cannot afford the one-million-yuan membership fee of a private senior care center. To secure a spot at a rest home, he plans to sell his apartment. Mu is already one of the most fortunate among China’s elders. For the majority of the 249 million elders in the country, such an option is virtually unthinkable given that the average monthly pension is around 2,500 yuan (340 U.S. dollars). But with 17.9 percent of the country’s population now over the age of 60, and a generation of single children bearing the entire cost of supporting two senior parents - and perhaps grandparents too, elders in China are likely to face a tough reality as they grow older. National rush to old age China’s population is turning grey at an unprecedented speed. In 2030, the population is expected to start shrinking, according to a study by the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences published earlier this year. By 2050, the number of people aged 60 or older in China is forecast to reach 487 million, or 35 percent of the population. This figure is even higher than that in what are known as "super-ageing" societies, like Japan, where 33 percent of the population is over 60. An old man makes his way back to his apartment in an electric powered wheelchair at a senior care center. /VCG Photo "It took China less than 20 years to hit the scale of ageing that northern European countries achieved in 30 to 40 years," says Professor Huang Wenzheng, a research fellow at the Center for China and Globalization(CCG), in an interview with CGTN Digital. The one-child policy, in place from 1979 to 2016, transformed the family structure in China to a reversed pyramid where a single child supports two parents and four grandparents. "When I turn 70, my son, who would turn 40, would be at the peak of his career. Can I count on him to rush to my house every time I slip and fall on the bathroom floor? Even if I can, should I?" Mu wonders. There are not many options lying ahead for him. He could stay at home and hire a live-in nurse who would charge him as much as 6,000 yuan per month. He could also move into a local community center that provides senior care, but where, other than a bed, not much else is available. Or, he could live at a high-end senior care center, though it comes with a hefty one-million-yuan price tag and a monthly fee of 5,000 yuan. Elders read books at the library of high-end senior care center Kangning Jin in Tianjin, north China. /CGTN Photo Expensive costs aside, a cultural prejudice against sending old people to senior care centers has also made it hard for Mu to accept his likely fate. The concept of filial piety translates into an entrenched belief that the purpose of raising a child is to secure a caregiver in the future. To send one’s parents to a senior care center is a breakaway from such a social ethos and a shameful act. "The Chinese population is turning grey before becoming rich," says Professor Huang. The rapid speed of ageing caught the entire country off guard, with the senior care infrastructure unprepared for the ageing crisis. Untapped potential in senior care industry Senior care centers hold a rather bad reputation for being crowded with residents looking like nothing but hospital patients. But high-end senior care centers challenge such a traditional belief. At the age of 87, Yan Meiyi is still rosy-cheeked and a good conversationalist. After moving to a high-end retirement compound in Tianjin, north China, she says she "never felt old for a single moment." "There are always classes to go to, activities to join-I don’t have time to think about my age," Yan says. The private complex Yan lives in houses 1,200 elders who are mostly former university professors, intellectuals, government cadres and employees of state-owned enterprises. A timetable detailing the activities at the institution shows more than 10 types of classes organized every day, ranging from English courses, calligraphy, painting, and Latin dance - almost all are organized and taught by elders. Yan Meiyi (L), 87, poses with a friend at the senior care center. /CGTN Photo ? These self-organized activities in the senior care center are partly by design, says Xi Jun, the CEO of Kangning Jin senior care center. Encouraging residents to organize and participate in social events is to let them be aware of their value of existence, he notes, adding that seniors need much more than food and environment. "It is about cultivating a new lifestyle." In 2016, the State Council announced that the senior care market in China should be more accessible for private capital. In two years, the government removed the requirement that senior care centers must obtain a license in an attempt to lower down entry barriers to the senior care market. "The state has decided to let free market play its role in revitalizing the market," Xi Jun says. "Corporations can cater to the diverse needs of elderly people while the government can provide the basic minimum care for all elders through social security networks." Senior care at your doorstep In Japan, where the senior care industry is developed, a three-tiered system of integrated medical and elderly care services is in place. The first tier comprises elderly health and welfare centers in communities that provide regular services such as health checks and basic health care. The second tier is day care centers which cater to seniors living independently as well as semi-disabled elderly who need nursing services. The third is specialized institutional senior care centers where elders with disabilities are guaranteed full-time care. Elders wait in line to get lunch at a community senior care center in Fengtai District, Beijing, May 24, 2018. /VCG Photo Since 2011, China has been following a similar three-tiered senior care management model, whereby 90 percent of elders are expected to stay at home, seven percent at community centers and three percent at institutional senior care centers. In 2016, Beijing launched a pilot project that established 150 community elder care centers in six of the capital’s districts. Wang Xiuqin, a retired community worker, used to go to her community daycare center regularly. The center is funded privately with subsidies from the government. Most elders visit the center to have three meals. It costs them 3,000 yuan per month. Those who cannot live independently and are in need of special care pay a monthly fee of 5,000 yuan for extra services. "Regular health check-ups, such as checking blood pressure, and giving prescription drugs for minor ailments are not a problem," Wang says. But the amenities are in no way comparable to high-end senior care centers where medical rooms with full-time licensed doctors and registered nurses are set up within the premises. Kangning Jin high-end senior care center even deploys helicopters in times of medical emergency. "I am fortunate enough to be able to afford a decent senior care center," says Mu. But for millions of elders, the wheels of time cannot be reversed, and solutions need to come fast before it’s too late. From CGTN,2019-2-20
2019年2月22日