國(guó)際貿(mào)易與投資
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全球化（globalization）一詞，是一種概念，也是一種人類社會(huì)發(fā)展的現(xiàn)象過(guò)程。全球化目前有諸多定義，通常意義上的全球化是指全球聯(lián)系不斷增強(qiáng)，人類生活在全球規(guī)模的基礎(chǔ)上發(fā)展及全球意識(shí)的崛起。國(guó)與國(guó)之間在政治、經(jīng)濟(jì)貿(mào)易上互相依存。全球化亦可以解釋為世界的壓縮和視全球?yàn)橐粋€(gè)整體。二十世紀(jì)九十年代后，隨著全球化勢(shì)力對(duì)人類社會(huì)影響層面的擴(kuò)張，已逐漸引起各國(guó)政治、教育、社會(huì)及文化等學(xué)科領(lǐng)域的重視，引發(fā)大規(guī)模的研究熱潮。對(duì)于“全球化”的觀感是好是壞，目前仍是見仁見智，例如全球化對(duì)于本土文化來(lái)說(shuō)就是一把雙刃劍，它也會(huì)使得本土文化的內(nèi)涵與自我更新能力逐漸模糊與喪失。
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He Weiwen: What is the solution to globalization imbalance？
By He Weiwen, a senior research fellow at the Center for China and Globalization(CCG).?
2019年1月29日 -
龐中英：最好的全球化討論不是為“全球化是大勢(shì)所趨”進(jìn)行辯護(hù)
龐中英，CCG特邀高級(jí)研究員，中國(guó)海洋大學(xué)海洋發(fā)展研究院院長(zhǎng)
2019年1月28日 -
New Research Reveals China’s Rapidly Declining Birth Rate
A child receives a vaccination shot at a hospital in Huaibei in China’s eastern Anhui province on July 26, 2018. (-/AFP/Getty Images) ? Negative population growth is projected to commence in China in the year 2027, according to a new paper released by the state-run Chinese Academy of Social Sciences in early January. This follows recent comments by some experts pointing out that the birth rate in China has fallen sharply, while Chinese authorities are likely reporting fake data on local birth rates. A Jan. 16 Radio Free Asia (RFA) report revealed that, since early 2016, when China abolished its one-child policy to allow couples to have two children, Shandong Province became the region with the highest number of “second children” born—contributing to roughly a quarter of the country’s total second children newborns. But the latest data from China’s National Bureau of Statistics revealed that that is no longer the case. The number of births have dropped significantly in several cities in Shandong, including Qingdao, Liaocheng, Yantai, and Dezhou. In Qingdao, for example, between January and November 2018, births fell by 21.1 percent, and the births of second children fell by 29 percent, compared with the same period in 2017. In the RFA report, Liu Kaiming, director of the Institute of Contemporary Observation research institute in Shenzhen City, southern China, said that based on various data, birth rates across China have indeed fallen drastically. “In the past, the annual births were more than 20 million. Now it is only about 15 million,” Liu said. “Even though China now allows the second child, the birth rate is still declining. Shandong is a typical example. Live births in Zibo [a city in Shandong] dropped 26 percent last year.” After decades of harshly enforcing the one-child policy, the country’s gender ratios have been significantly skewed, with roughly 115.4 boys to 100 girls, according to the World Bank. Faced with the reality of an aging population and shrinking workforce, Chinese authorities have in recent years tried to switch gears completely and instead encourage more families to have children. According to Huang Wenzheng, a senior researcher at the Chinese think tank, Center for China and Globalization(CCG), China’s birth rate is roughly 1.2 (children born per woman), so—contrary to government estimates—the turning point into negative population growth will definitely come before 2027. Yi Fuxian, a senior scientist at the University of Wisconsin School of Medicine and Public Health, along with an economist from the National Economic Research Center of Peking University in China, Su Jian, shared similar views. In a recent article they wrote jointly, Yi and Su predicted that China has already entered negative population growth either in 2018 or will do so in 2019. Yi told RFA that the paper published by Chinese Academy of Social Sciences is based on the assumption that China’s birth rate would continue to be 1.6—its current rate—or more in the following years. However, Yi believes this rate will not be sustained. Yi also added that the Chinese authorities have consistently fudged data in order to make China appear to have a stable birth rate. The 2000 census showed that China’s birth rate was 1.22, but the National Bureau of Statistics later changed it to 1.8, according to Yi. Had the Bureau not repeatedly reported false data, Yi believes the Chinese regime would have awoken to the dangers of the one-child policy earlier. “It’s time to hold them accountable,” he said. The decline in China’s birth rate is among the most drastic in the world. According to the Evergrande Research Institute of Tsinghua University, the birth rate in China fell from 6 to 1.6, compared to the United States, where it fell from 3.3 to 1.9 between 1950 to 2015, and Japan, where it fell from 3 to 1.4. ? From the epoch times，2019-1-21
2019年1月24日 -
出生人口降200萬(wàn)人口危機(jī)迫在眉睫！人口學(xué)家建言大力鼓勵(lì)生育
作者簡(jiǎn)介 梁建章 梁建章，全球化智庫(kù)（CCG）資深副主席、攜程聯(lián)合創(chuàng)始人、執(zhí)行董事局主席。
2019年1月24日 -
He Weiwen: China is fine, Trump should focus on America
By He Weiwen, a senior research fellow at the Center for China and Globalization(CCG).? U.S. President Donald Trump tweeted immediately after China’s official GDP data was released by saying: "China posts slowest economic numbers since 1990 due to trade tensions and new policies. Makes so much sense for China to finally do a Real Deal, and stop playing around!" Trump’s tweet is a real surprise as he is struggling with the federal government shutdown which is bringing down the American GDP growth by 0.1 percent every two weeks.?? According to the official data released by the State Statistics Bureau on Monday, China had real GDP growth of 6.6 percent in 2018, 0.2 percent lower than in 2017 (6.8 percent), still twice as fast as the U.S. (estimated at 2.9 percent). The main reason lies in the slowdown in fixed investment which grew by only 5.9 percent as compared to 7.0 percent growth in 2017. ? The key reason was further deleveraging, as part of the supply-side reform. M2 supply grew more slowly than GDP for the first time in many years and a strict ceiling was imposed on local government debt. Further cutting down over capacity (30 million tons of steel capacity shut down over the year) also dragged down the investment. Both are necessary for transforming China’s growth from quantity to quality. ? In 2019, China will accelerate consumption and infrastructure investment, with the latter alone expected to lift GDP growth rate by 0.6 percent. For 2019, China’s GDP growth rate will stay above 6.0 percent, again more than twice as fast as the U.S. The growing deterioration in world trade, caused to a large extent by Trump Administration’s unilateralism and protectionism, increased China’s economic difficulties. Nonetheless, the actual performance of China’s trade in 2018 was beyond expectation. The total trade volume in goods hit 4.62 trillion U.S. dollars, 12.6 percent over 2017, with exports up 9.9 percent and imports up 15.8 percent. ? Ironically, the trade tensions launched by the U.S. did not hurt China much?but hurt the U.S. badly. According to Chinese customs statistics, in 2018, Chinese exports to the U.S. grew by 11.3 percent, faster than its exports to the world. Its imports from the U.S., however, grew by a meager 0.7 percent. ?
2019年1月24日
